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HANDICAPPING
THE ROLAND GARROS FIELD
Guga,
Andre or JC Ferrero?
Jennifer, Venus or Amelie?
By
Matthew Cronin
tennisreporters.net
Thursday,
May 25 – Unlike in recent years, no male will likely go
into Roland Garros red hot, which makes picking this year's
winner exceedingly difficult.
THE
MEN
Defending champ Gustavo Kuerten hasn't had a spectacular '01,
but has played solid enough to put himself in a position to grab
his third title. When he's on, Guga is pretty much impenetrable.
The Brazilian is extremely steady, plays very deep, has a vast
array of weapons and will fight to the death on his beloved Court
Centrale.
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After
starting the year on fire on cement, Andre Agassi dumped
matches on clay to very beatable opponents in Atlanta and
Rome. However, his late-career approach is to peak for the
Slams and since he has followed through on all his pledges
in '01, there is little reason to doubt that he will be
a serious contender in Paris.
If
anyone can punch-out Guga, it's this '99 champ. It could
be argued that the man with best hands in Spanish history
– Juan
Carlos Ferrero
– was
on fore after winning Rome and reaching the Hamburg final,
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Susan
Mullane
Camerawork USA, Inc.
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but
after tearing up his groin in his five set loss to Albert Portas,
he will arrive in Paris cold and without a lot of practice. Even
if this super-talent does manage to play, it's hard to imagine
him grinding through seven matches and up to 21 hours of game
opponents. Given that about 75 percent of the guys ATP Tour were
bred in clay sandboxes, the darkhorse stable is as sizable as
the Louvre. Yet there are only a few stallions who have shown
serious finishing power in '01
–
Sebastien Grosjean, Arnaud Clement and Andy Roddick. With Marat
Safin battling injuries, Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Magnus Norman's
confidence in the tank and Carlos Moya struggling to relocate
his warrior mentality, don't be surprised if the list of quarterfinalists
look like an old St. Tropez Challenger draw. Talented youngsters
like Switzerland's Roger Federer and Andrea Vincigueraa, Spain's
Alberto Martin and Argentina's Guillermo Coria could make a second
week pushes, as could Alex Calatrava, Lleyton Hewitt and Portas.
And what of Sampras? He's trained harder than an Alaskan Husky
for the Iditorod and the prediction here is that he'll improve
upon his very modest results over the past four years
– backhand
or no backhand.
THE
WOMEN
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Susan
Mullane
Camerawork USA, Inc.
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Like
Guga, Andre and Ferrero, it can be argued that only Venus,
Jennifer Capriati and Amelie Mauresmo have shown up and
played elite tennis more times than not this year. Both
Americans are adept on clay and Venus is itching to show
that her previous Roland Garros disasterswere due to rustiness/inexperience/injuries
(pick all or one). Jennifer recovered nicely from her Ericsson
final gag to Venus by stomping Martina Hingis in Charleston
and is striking the ball cleaner than any player right now.
And
what of Martina's chances? If Hingis could play the final
anonymously on a back court at Luxembourg Gardens, she'd
probably win her first French Open title handily.
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But
it will be years before the ravenous Court Centrale crowd forgives
her for her '99 implosion and without her mother/coach by her
side propping her up psychologically, it's questionable that the
still somewhat immature Swiss can overcome her demons here.
Only
two other players have a serious chance to win this year: the
red hot French powerballer Mauresmo and the multi-talented Serena
Williams. With four titles this year and two wins over her nemisis,
Hingis, Mauresmo is playing better than at any time in her injury-riddled
career (including her run to the '99 Aussie Open final). Serena
can beat anyone on any given day, but her decision not to play
any warm-up events (what knee injury?) wasn't sound.
Other
than Yugolslav/Aussie/Floridian Jelena Dokic's stunning run to
the title in Rome, it's been the worst year for blondes since
Marilyn Monroe left to serve the Virgin Mary in '62. Four of the
tour's most formidable blondes have been on the disabled list
for much of the year: defending champ Mary Pierce, Anna Kournikova,
Anke Huber and Elena Dementieva. Hobbled and rusty, the fair-haired
ones have little chance to win Roland Garros. Dokic's two biggest
problems have always been her lunatic father and her own wildness,
but she's a big time talent with laser groundstrokes and a lot
of desire. If she displays the pateince and focus she showed in
taking mauresmo in Rome, she has an outside short at the title
here. Lindsay Davenport and Monica Seles have also been limping
and it's hard to imagine veterans Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario or Conchita
Martinez winning. A few fresh faces in the quarters is almost
assured
– look
for Justine Henin, Meghann Shaughnessy, Paola Suarez, Kim Clijsters,
Elena Bovina or Angeles Montolio to make second week moves.
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