| ROLAND
GARROS MEN'S PREVIEW with draw analysis
Dark horses chomping at the
bit
Top 10 contenders plus 10
By Matthew Cronin
tennisreporters.net
 |
 |
Photos: Fred Mullane/Camerawork USA |
| Three former champs –
Carlos Moya, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Andre Agassi –
have solid shots at another RG cup. |
The Top 10
Roger Federer: The French-speaking
Swiss has no real explanation for why he's melted down so quickly
in Paris after standout warm-up seasons. He's virtually tanked the
last two years and there's no question he wants to right his ship.
He believes he can win every other Slam, but has he convinced himself
that he has the credentials to win the Slam closest to home? He
fought hard to win Wimbledon and the Aussie Open, but he was in
an ethereal zone and was rarely pushed. He'll need to produce a
lion-sized heart if he has to come back from two sets down against
the likes of Ferrero, Coria and Costa. Of course, they'll have to
get the Hamburg champ two sets down first. In many ways, his draw
could be worse. Kiefer is the second round is no easy task, nor
is the hobbled by game Guga in R3 or Grosjean/Safin or former nemesis
Nalbandian on clay in the quarters. But a Costa or Ferrero won't
be there till the semis, which means that physically, he should
be spry when all the cards on the table.
Guillermo Coria:
The last Argentine to win RG was another man nicknamed Willy (Guillermo
Vilas), who didn't have Coria's speed, lungs or counterpunching
ability. Vilas did have bigger weapons, but up until the Hamburg
final where he fell to Federer, Coria had Muster-like confidence
with a 31-match clay win streak.
Coria has a vicious draw with Davydenko in the R1, revived countryman
Mariano Zabaleta in R3, strongman Gonzalez or Pavel in R4. His quarterfinal
foe could be Moya, Massu or Robredo, and Agassi or Roddick will
certainly be primed should they reach the semis.
With all that said, he's favored in al those contests. The question
is, did Federer's four-set win over him seriously dent his confidence,
or does he consider it a one-off due to a broken blister on his
hand? Hint: there are no one-offs against Roger.
Carlos Moya:
The Spaniards believe he still has the heart and proper nerves to
win another title here, but there's a reason why Moya hasn't seen
a Slam semi in nearly six years. His march to a the quarters against
Coria won't be simple with the likes of Hrbaty, young countryman
Robredo or sweets-swinging Massu in the way. He'll need to deploy
the same suffocating style he displayed in Rome and cannot afford
to play conservatively deep in the second week. If he can let loose
when it counts, he'll at least reach the semis.
David Nalbandian:
This deceptive Argentine master can't counterpunch on clay like
he does on other surfaces, but he certainly has enough talent to
frustrate most players. As good as he's been at the other three
Slams, he's cracked late. For the third time in the past four Slams,
he may have to face Federer. He upset him at the Open, but fell
Down Under. But in order to get there, he'll need to display a strong
consistent level against Gasquet in the R1, Ljubicic in R3 and either
Safin or Grosjean in R4. But if he finds his heart, a title run
is not out of the question.
Juan Carlos Ferrero:
The defending champ just began training on Monday after a bout with
the chicken pox and a chest injury. He's never played well when
he's not 100 percent, so there's are few reasons to expect a repeat
– except that he feels that it's his crown to lose. We'll
know just how ready he is in R1, when he confronts Haas. Should
he survive the German, it'd downhill until the fourth round when
Gaudio or Cañas could be waiting. If he survives that and
a quarter against Costa or Hewitt, his chances will increase by
90 percent.
Marat Safin:
The raging Russian has had some notable victories and defeats here,
but it's his meltdown against Santoro that most comes to mind. Safin
has a very tough first round against Calleri and a third rounder
against Grosjean. He has the game, but maybe not the patience for
the longest grind in tennis. Needs to come in more to triumph here
and if he catches that strategy wave, he could the first Russian
titlist since Yevgeny Kafelnikov in '96.
Andre Agassi:
This '99 champ's last tango in Paris will come with only one warm-up
match, but he had a similar schedule before his title run and played
extremely well. The 34-year-old legend will compete hard, but may
not have enough left to go beyond the semis. He has a negotiable
draw, with only Spadea in the third round looking dangerous. If
you look at his section, he's actually a substantial favorite to
reach the semis. Roddick is fierce, but not on clay. Should he reach
the semis, don't think that he won't want another shot at Coria,
who ran past him last year.
Andy Roddick:
US Davis Cup captain Patrick McEnroe says Andy's got the goods to
contend here, but he's never shown it on Euro dirt. He had better
establish his forehand and first serve very quickly or a first week
exit is waiting for him. Todd Martin is actually a good, straightforward
first round and he could do worse than Robby Ginepri or Olivier
Mutis in R2. But Clement on Court Centrale in an R3 Davis Cup rematch
of two years ago? That's a popcorn match and Andy better bring heaps
of butter.
Sebastian Grosjean:
If there's a serious French contender, it's the chronically injured
Skateboard Kid, who always produces a little magic on Court Centrale.
He's willing to pay for Clinton's return. Is he willing to pay the
price again to cut down Safin in R3?
Nicolas Massu:
The Chilean needs to shorten his schedule, but is very comfortable
on clay and is almost no one's pick to go far. He has tremendous
flair and if he can will himself to stick in matches, may find himself
still playing on Friday of the second week. But first he'll have
to elbow Robredo in R3.
Susan Mullane/Camerawork USA |
Guga could always find his
No. 1 game in Paris. |
10 dark horses
Lleyton Hewitt:
Aussie hasn't won a clay crown this spring, but has challenged one
and all. Losing close ones isn't nothing to get too excited about,
but who's going to pick against him in against Verkerk? It's Costa
in R4 that's troubling.
Andrei Pavel: Underrated
shot maker scored a nice win over Hewitt in Rome, but has been exposed
by the elite. Has an attractive R3 brawl against Fernando.
Juan-Ignacio Chela:
This slightly obscure hidden Argentine with whizzing groundies has
never reached a Slam quarter. It's high time. Lock him into the
third round against Clement or Roddick.
Mariano Zabaleta:
Another Argentine with a big ground attack. Veteran is way, way
overdue.
Tommy Robredo:
If Moya and JC falter, look for Tommy Two Guns to pick up the slack.
Fernando Gonzalez:
There will at least one Gonzalez match when a fan comes way thinking
that no one can stop Fernando's forehand. Then there will be another
contest where a fan has to taken off on a stretcher after Gonzalez
frames one into his grill. That contest will be his 15-rounder against
Pavel.
Gustavo Kuerten:
For no other reason than he's Guga.
Albert Costa:
For no other reason than he's Lunch Bucket Al. Actually there is
another one: He's a former champ.
Nicolay Davydenko:
The Nadia Petrova of the men's game?
Robby Ginepri or Vince
Spadea: Merely because both Americans
just lost consecutive tough three-setters at the ATP World Team
Cup and are sure to lose tough five-setters at RG. If Ginepri upends
Roddick and Spadea tackles Andre, NBC will flee the grounds. |
