Roland garros WoMEN'S PREVIEW with draw analysis

Venus, Mauresmo lead contenders
Top 10 contenders plus 10 dark horses

By Matthew Cronin
tennisreporters.net

Fred Mullane/Camerawork USA

Mauresmo will have to produce her best yellowball ever should she face a Williams sister in the final.

The Top 10
Venus Williams: Who knows if her sore ankle is mending after her spill in Berlin. Her form has been good as anyone’s (including Mauresmo’s), but she hates playing hurt and if she’s not 100 percent healthy, she’ll play tentatively and go down. But if she healed quickly, No. 4 Venus is the hands-down favorite to win her first title. Her first-week draw is dicey but negotiable: Tanasugarn (easy), Kostanic (simple with patience) and Pierce (a snap if she serves well). Then it’s potential back to back physical wars with Zuluaga and potentially Kuznetsova – should she survive Sprem/Myskina/Mandula. It’s the semis that will define her – sister Serena or Jen Capriati.

Amelie Mauresmo: Who would have suspected that the chronically injured veteran could go back to back in Berlin in Rome a la Steffi and Monica? Certainly not anyone who saw her shocking blowout at the hands of Serena at RG last year. If Amelie is willing to grind and somehow finds a way to impose herself without getting shaking and quaking on Court Centrale, than she can certainly win this tournament. She has a very nice draw until the quarters, where she’ll likely face Davenport. On paper, she should be able to take that contest on clay. But Lindsay rarely chokes; it will be extremely tight. Should she win that, it’s really a matter of whether Henin-Hardenne has survived till the semis and what kind shape the Belgian will be in when she gets there. No elite player in memory as good as Mauresmo is has been as bad at home in their country’s big tournament. In many ways, a Mauresmo title run would be a downright miracle, but one that would turn history on its head.

Serena Williams: If knee holds up, she’ll be downright evil in seeking revenge for her '03 flameout against Henin-Hardenne. If not, any 'ole game player could give her her walking papers. After eight straight defeats of JCap, she finally lost to her American rival in Rome, which couldn’t have felt very good. On the bright side, Henin-Hardenne and Venus are hurting. On the dark side, she left her rhythm in Miami. She has a very difficult first round with the capable lefty Iveta Benasova and a dicey second round with either Maria Kirilenko or Marie-Gayane Mikaelian. If she avoids an upset, she’ll eat up Nathalie Dechy, but then it’s a potential horror show against Conchita Martinez. Her quarter? None other than a newly confident J-Cap. However, should this ’02 champ reach the semis, look out below.

Justine Henin-Hardenne: She’s always had a fragile constitution and now has just come off an aggressive battling mono-like virus. The defending champ is sure to fight to the last ball, but without the high-energy style that led her to three Slams crowns, a fit player could pin her early. However, if she gets four easy wins under her belt, a repeat is not out of the question. Justine will literally die trying. Unless she takes ill again, her only real early challenge should come from Suarez in round four. Then, it’s likely a hellacious Russian in the quarters and Mauresmo or Davenport in the semis. At least she doesn’t have to think about facing a Williams until the final.

Jennifer Capriati: All of sudden and possibly due to the grace of Heniz Gunhardt, Jen shocks Serena in Rome and then gives Mauresmo all she can handle in the final. Sure, she hasn’t been able to close against the elite in three years, but she’s nearly there and if she can recall her glory year here, she may be able to steal her second trophy. She has a very easy draw until the quarters, when she’ll get a crack at Serena again. A repeat of there '02 semifinal classic here, this one will mean much, much more than Rome.

Lindsay Davenport: This SoCal vet doesn’t like the tournament and is not smooth dancer on clay, but she’s the healthiest elite player in field, which could mean a surprisingly deep run – to the semis. Just look at how easily she cruised to the final in Strasbourg. Lock her into the quarters against Amelie.

Svetlana Kuznetsova: With winter wins over Venus and Henin-Hardenne, this swarthy Russian looked like Top 5 player. She’s till playing everyone tough, but with troublesome shoulder, she may not have enough juice to become first Russian finalist since Natasha Zvereva. But if she puts some new tread on her mag wheels, she a serious threat to reach the final. A sweet draw until she meets Sprem in R3.

Maria Sharapova: With Petrova and Zvonareva’s confidence down (or are they just leveling off), this Russian teen has a better shot at the final eight. She didn’t grow up on clay, but once she’s grooved, can blast with anyone. But can she survive tough Austrian vet Barbara Schwartz in the first round?

Anastasia Myskina: Arguably the world’s third best player in February, the Russian has since struggled with a bad toe. She’s played awful here in past, which is why she wants to win this Slam the most. But she seems to lack that little something when opportunity knocks (see her loss to Clijsters at the '04 Aussie). If she gets past the revived Aussie, Alicia Molik in round one, she may have to topple Czech teen Barbara Strycova in round two. Then Petra Mandula in R3 and Sprem or Kuznetsova in R4? It’s not happening. Bye.

Karolina Sprem: Some weeks, this Croatian teen knocks our socks off. Other weeks (like when she was blasted by Clijsters in Fed Cup), she can’t keep a ball in the yard. But she’s quite gutsy and we like that. She’ll need it against Kuzy in R3.

Susan Mullane/Camerawork USA

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