US Open Men's Preview

Can Federer find a New York state of mind?
Roger could face Agassi in quarters; Roddick v. Hewitt a probable semi

By Matthew Cronin, TennisReporters.net

Fred Mullane/Camerawork USA

Federer has never been impressive in New York.

The last man to win three Grand Slams in a year was Sweden's Mats Wilander in 1988 and he took a hankering to the loud sounds and smells of cosmopolitan New York. Top-ranked Roger Federer has yet to do so and if he is to win his first US Open title this year, he may want to ask New York's most successful foreign athlete, the Yankees' Hideki Matsui of Japan, to race him around the city and learn to shout "New Yawk" like a grizzled cabby.

Federer has a much tougher draw then defending US Open champion Andy Roddick does and although he's been playing better than Roddick all year long, he'll be hard pressed to meet up with the American in the final. Looming in Federer's quarter is two-time champ Andre Agassi, who is almost surely playing his last US Open and will go all out to pull a Pete Sampras and win another title in his last appearance there.

Federer has a brutal first round match against swarthy Spaniard Albert Costa, the 2002 French Open champion who is in obvious decline, but can still grind with the best of them. The Swiss' third round will also likely be a tussle, whether he faces French magician Fabrice Santoro, US fan favorite Todd Martin (who like Agassi will also likely be waving goodbye this year) or rising Russian Dmitry Tursunov. Nails-tough Romanian and 16th seed Andrei Pavel could be waiting in the fourth round, so even if Federer gets to Agassi, he could be dragging heavy legs on court by then.

Of course, this is assuming that the 34-year-old Agassi even gets to the quarterfinals, which is no sure thing. While the immensely popular Las Vegan showed that he still has a lot of game left in winning the title in Cincinnati two weeks ago with back to back wins over Roddick and Lleyton Hewitt, he reverted back to his erratic form last week, when he fell to unknown Gilles Muller of Luxembourg in the semifinals of Washington.

Like Federer, Agassi also has a difficult first round match when he faces young American Robby Ginepri, an all-courter with good wheels who reached the fourth round of the Australian Open earlier this year. While Ginepri hasn't done much since, he'll surely be up for a rousing battle against the US legend on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Should Agassi gun past Ginepri, he has fairly easy pickings until the fourth round, when he will seriously pressed if he has to face Olympic gold medallist Nicolas Massu or American Taylor Dent, who's coming off a titanic loss in Athens for the bronze medal to Fernando Gonzalez.

If Agassi and Federer do face off, the New York crowd will do all it can to pull Steffi Graf's husband through the match. Agassi has played Federer tough before, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that he can wear down the Swiss if Federer isn't immediately in his ethereal zone. It will be in this match where Federer will show if he has acclimatized to Flushing Meadows, and whether like Wilander, if he has learned to shut the crowd out and concentrate on painting the lines.

The winner of that contest will likely reach the final, as none of their potential semifinal foes - Britain's Tim Henman, Olympic silver medallist Mardy Fish or French Open champion Gaston Gaudio -- have showed during the past six weeks that they have the goods to win a huge hard court match at a Grand Slam. If Fish had taken down Massu in Athens, he might have made the grade, but he littered the court with unforced errors when it mattered most.

Fred Mullane/Camerawork USA

Hewitt has had success against Andy.

roddick v. Hewitt probable
Roddick has to be pleased with his opening round. He'll start his title defense against junior Scoville Jenkins of Atlanta, a 17-year-old who got into the tournament by virtue of winning the USTA 18s Super Nationals. While Jenkins has a decent amount of talent, he won't be able to match the rocket-serving Roddick's firepower. On paper, Roddick's second round looks tricky, as he'll face the winner of the match between Spanish phenom Rafael Nadal and his friend and countryman, James Blake. However, both these players are coming off injuries and while the teenage Nadal appears to be fully healthy, he's never been a force on cement.

If 2000 US titlist Marat Safin finds his head and heart again, the 21-year-old Roddick could be seriously tested in the fourth round. But that's a big if when it comes to the Russian, who's had a disappointing summer. But if Safin finds the desire that brought him to the 2002 Australian Open final (when he took out Roddick in a brilliant five-setter in the quarters), he'll pose a huge threat to the American.

Beyond that match, Roddick has little to be concerned about until the semifinals, when he could face his nemesis, Hewitt, whom he has only beaten once. Like Roddick, 2001 US champion Hewitt has a very negotiable draw and shouldn't feel the heat until the fourth round, when he could face the powerful Gonzalez of Chile. No one else in the Aussie's quarter scares him.

A semifinal between the fiery Hewitt and the pumped-up Roddick-Hewitt is exactly what the tournament is looking for. Should it comes to pass, it will be a re-match of their classic 2001 quarterfinal, when Roddick lost his cool in a high-profile night match that was won by Hewitt in five. This time, the more mature American is sure to be more composed, but because Hewitt returns serve so well, he might not be more successful.

If anyone beyond Federer, Roddick, Agassi or Hewitt wins the Open this year it will be a major upset. The tournament hasn't had a surprise winner since Safin in 2000 and from the looks of the summer hardcourt circuit, there will be no improbable Gaudio stunning the world and raising the trophy come the final Sunday.