US Open woMen's Preview

JH-H's run to the gold makes her favorite to repeat
Davenport a close second, while Serena, Mauresmo must step up

By Matthew Cronin, TennisReporters.net

Susan Mullane/ Camerawork USA

'03 US Open champ Henin-Hardenne.

In a rapid one-week non-appearance at the Olympics, American Lindsay Davenport went from being the US Open favorite to being merely Justine Henin-Hardenne's toughest contender.

With her miraculous run to the gold medal, Henin-Hardenne reaffirmed her No. 1 ranking and showed that despite being off the tour for most of the past four months due to a debilitating virus, she hasn't abandoned her ambition of being the last woman standing in New York.

Almost no one would thought that the Belgian had the ability to shake off her illness so quickly and move with fluidity and strength that she did during her Athens run. But even though she wasn't on top of her game in the semifinals, she managed to claw back from a 1-5 deficit in the third set against Roland Garros champion Anastasia Myskina with the same oversized heart and courage that made her the queen of New York last year.

Davenport made be riding a four-tournament and 18-match winning streak coming into the Open, but Henin-Hardenne is on her side of the draw and she has lost to her the last four times they've played, including at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells this year. Even though Davenport is far more confident and consistent than she was then, it will take a monumental effort from the soon-to-retire US legend to step on the feisty Belgian if Justine is playing at 100 percent.

SHARAPOVA BOWS OUT QUICKLY
Henin-Hardenne has an patty-cake draw up until the quarters, when she could confront Wimbledon champion Maria Sharapova or potentially Svetlana Kuznetsova, the ninth seed. A high-level contest between the 17-year-old Russian upstart and the proven 22-year-old Belgian is exactly what fans want, but Sharapova will have a hard time getting there. Sharapova has struggled on hard courts this summer, tearfully falling to Myskina in San Diego, out-punched by fellow Russian teen Vera Zvonareva in Montreal and then in her worse loss since the spring, was extremely erratic in a stunning upset to unheralded Mashona Washington on Tuesday in New Haven.

On grass, the tall and powerful Sharapova was able to control play early on behind huge serves, devastating returns and pinpoint groundstrokes. But on slower hardcourts, she's forced to play many more extended points and doesn't yet appear to have the staying power to outlast accomplished foes. The only way she's going to take down Henin-Hardenne – or even Mary Pierce or Kuznetsova before the quarterfinals – is to zone early and often. Heni-Hardennen will likely school her with a variety of shots and dogged retrieving.

Davenport a close second, while Serena, Mauresmo must step up
Unless Serena Williams or Amelie Mauresmo step up to another level in the other side of the draw, Henin-Hardenne's greatest challenge will almost certainly be Davenport in the semis. Davenport is coming into the tournament red-hot, having seriously raised the level of her game in her four consecutive title runs with final round wins over Venus Williams, Serena, Myskina and Zvonareva. For the first time since 2000, she's dictating play with her significant serve and the tour's most feared forehand. Her surgically repaired knee seems to be holding up well and she isn't backing off on the important points. Since she upended Venus in a vintage three-set final at Stanford in July, she's showed tremendous confidence on the big points.

But Davenport didn't beaten Henin-Hardenne during that period and she's well aware that the Belgian brings a lot more to the table right now than the previous mentioned foursome, two (the Williamses) who are battling injuries and having stroke production problems the other two who still don't quit believe in themselves yet week-in, week-out against the elite.

Venus should have chance for revenge against Davenport in the fourth round, but hasn't been healthy since April. Myskina will likely have an opportunity to disprove the lack of confidence theory wrong in the quarterfinals against Davenport, who blew her out in the final of San Diego. But Myskina hasn't taken a set off the American in four matches and has trouble mixing and matching against her larger foe's death blows.

Mauresmo has a solid past three weeks and is favored to come out of the bottom half of the draw – if she doesn't seize up come semifinal time. Mauresmo was impressive in her title run at Montreal and was solid with her all around attack in winning the silver medal in Athens, but then got tight in the final against Henin-Hardenne. She has a strong desire to reach No. 1, but the No. 2 ranked Frenchwoman won't gain the total respect of her peers until she wins a Slam.

Mauresmo has a convenient draw until the quarterfinals, when she could face the relentless attack of Zvonareva. However, while this somewhat unknown 10th seed has pushed the elite players all year long, Zvonareva frequently seizes up deep in matches, like in her loss to Myskina in San Diego and against Davenport in Cincinnati.

Should Mauresmo reach the semis, she could meet Serena – who has overwhelmed her in the past – or Jennifer Capriati, whom she always seems to beat. If she does face Serena, who toppled her in a tight three-setter in the Wimbledon semis in a match she should have won, the world will really see whether she'll ever develop the nerves of a champion.

Fred Mullane/Camerawork USA

Jennifer Capriati and Serena Williams will probably battle in the quarters.

US legends Serena and Capriati are the tournament's two biggest questions. Two-time champ Serena has only played one full tournament since losing to Sharapova in the Wimbledon final, when she was buried by Davenport in Los Angeles. She hurt her surgically repaired knee again and was then pull out of three straight tournaments. Her conditioning is seriously suspect and if she's not in shape, her technical problems will quickly rise to the surface.

The same goes for Capriati, who like Serena, has played little since Wimbledon, losing early at Montreal and battling hamstring and back injuries. When she's not in top shape, the 28-year-old Capriati is unable to bring out her "A" game, which features endless side-to-side wind sprints. When she's not confident she can outlast opponents, Capriati tends to make a lot of unforced errors, which showed in her upset at the hands of Nathalie Dechy in New Haven on Thursday.

Remarkably, for the third straight time, Serena and Capriati are scheduled to meet in a Slam quarterfinal. Capriati exhausted Serena at the French Open and Serena took her down at Wimbledon. Even if they are both out of shape, it will be a hell of a fight. But neither of these two warriors are guaranteed to even get there, as Capriati will likely have to overcome up-and-coming Croatian teen Karolina Sprem and Serena might have to take down Olympic bronze medallist Alicia Molik of Australia.

But if they do meet and contend another classic, whichever one reaches the semis will be riding a huge high and a tremendous amount of crowd support. Serena or Capriati besting a Mauresmo and reaching the final against Henin or Davenport are the perfect ingredients for terrific comebacks, and a final well worth waiting for.